The meaning of “If” to me

The poem “If”, by Rudyard Kipling, is a cornerstone of British culture. By extension, it has been passed down from generation to generation in India too. It was particularly meaningful to me in my formative years.

Here it is, in case you haven’t seen it before.

If

If you can keep your head when all about you

Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:

If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;
If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools:

If you can make a heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: “Hold on!”

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!

I had it taped above my study table, in the room where I grew up from the ages of 9 to 17. As a young tween, I was particularly puzzled by the stanza about “Triumph and Disaster… treat those two impostors just the same.”

Surely, Triumph can’t be an impostor? To be successful is the goal! It’s difficult. Therefore, it must be the real deal? It took me years of training for sports and taking on much more challenging pursuits to realize what it meant. Resting on one’s laurels = death for an athlete. There’s a long road ahead of you, and each right step is only the beginning. Each misstep can be corrected. The important thing is to ‘keep one’s head.’

Another phrase that was particularly fascinating to me was “And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise”. The possession of youth + resources is a recipe for overconfidence and narcissism.

Over the years, I’ve realized how grateful I should really be for the opportunities I’ve been given. The time and quality of my interactions with family and friends. The knowledge and patience of my teachers. Being able to have a real childhood, and dreams for a future. So yes, I certainly won’t be looking ‘too good’ or ‘talking too wise’. Humility and grace matters. And it differentiates you from the pack.

I recently started thinking about how important it is to learn from others. In my life, “If” is a constant reminder to check my biases, and refocus on what I truly want in life.

Enjoy it!

Machine Learning and the Market for Intelligence

On January 7, 2016, I attended University of Toronto’s machine learning conference entitled, “Machine Learning and the Market for Intelligence”.

It was a tremendously informative and exhilarating experience! Geoff Hinton, one of the world’s foremost researchers in this field, presented his ideas, as did several other top-notch authors and researchers. Jerry Kaplan, the author of “Humans Need Not Apply”, provided an energetic and impassioned view of why he believes AI-regulation is not as important as execution at this stage of ML (machine learning) technology.

Venture Capitalists from the valley made the trip up north, to discuss how they were assessing startups which use ML to build applications for diverse industries such as HR, logistics, healthcare, and medical research.

I had a chance to make a few notes thankfully. I’ve attached a 2 page summary of the conference in the form of a visual summary. The picture quality may not be so great but the content is gold. 🙂

Enjoy!

machine-learning-conference-winter-2016-sketches-imachine-learning-conference-winter-2016-sketches

 

 

Gene Editing: The new frontier in medicine

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn28454-gene-editing-saves-life-of-girl-dying-from-leukaemia-in-world-first/

Using genetically engineered immune cells from a donor, doctors were able to cure Layla, a young child suffering from leukemia, of all symptoms of her cancer.

This form of treatment is incredibly promising in helping us find the cure for all sorts of chronic diseases and previously incurable disorders.

While both scary and exciting, we don’t really know where gene editing could end up. What if these molecular scissors, as scientists refer to them, end up cutting and changing the wrong part of our cells? How would gene editing affect personality? How would it change our immunity levels, and resilience as a species?

Also, on our quest to become an interplanetary species, could we edit the genes of people travelling to outer-space so that they become more resilient to radiation, require less oxygen to survive, and retain muscle mass more easily?

Elon Musk and his minions should be (and most likely are) exploring this aspect of space travel.

THE FUTURE OF PSYCHIATRY: WRITING TO A BRAIN?

It’s happening! Scientists can now read thoughts with clarity and carry out external actions based on that.

http://singularityhub.com/2015/10/25/scientists-connect-brain-to-a-basic-tablet-paralyzed-patient-googles-with-ease/

Soon we will be not only be able to “read” brains, but “write to” them too. Whole experiences, memories, and skills will soon be written to brains. In fact, “writing to” human brains is already happening, in a way. 

Doctors use transcranial magnetic simulation (in layman terms, that means using magnetic fields to stimulate nerves in the brain) in order to treat depression.

http://www.mayoclinic.org/tests-procedures/transcranial-magnetic-stimulation/basics/definition/prc-20020555

I wonder what this would mean for the future of Psychiatry. I can imagine this being used to treat PTSD (Post Traumatic Stress Disorder) – Psychiatrists can overwrite memories, alter, and update them to tell a more palatable story to their patients. People may not only use it to erase traumatic memories, but also to alter personality traits such as anger and frequent anxiety.

The possibilities of this technology could be endless!

How would this accelerate the development of human babies? Would we be able to speed up their learning process through this technology? We are seriously going into the Gattaca zone here.

What other (legal) uses can you think of?

The rise (and decline) of Apple Pay

Apple Pay just completed its first year in the market. Here’s an article that describes the product’s strengths and weaknesses so far.

http://techcrunch.com/2015/10/17/where-does-apple-pay-stand-on-its-first-birthday/

What struck me as most interesting is the aspects of user adoption that the article talks about.

Users Can’t Keep It Up. As everyday consumers have joined early adopters in enjoying Apple Pay access, usage rates have declined. The share of iPhone 6 users who say they use Apple Pay “every chance I get” has fallen from 48 percent in March to 33 percent in June, according to surveys by InfoScout and PYMNTS.com. What’s more, the percentage of people who say they “rarely consider” using Apple Pay increased from 17 percent to 23 percent over that same time period.

Every major commercial bank, vendors, and even credit card partners across the globe are increasingly adopting and offering Apple Pay. And yet, the user adoption rate is declining!

Does that make any sense? I have two explanations as to why this is happening.

Explanation 1: Changing user behavior is difficult

Time and time again, great ideas that see initial adoption from users die a painful death rather quickly (~1 year). This could be due to insufficient sources of revenue. It could also be due to the fact that users just aren’t addicted to this product. Getting users to change their behavior is difficult, and creating addictive products is doubly difficult. There are so many factors that come into play – emotional design (Google Nir Eyal/Dan Norman for this), network effects, and switching costs.

Having said that, if anyone has the complete picture of changing user behavior, it would have to be Apple.

Explanation 2: There is a major issue that needs to be resolved before Apple Pay can become omnipresent – Battery Technology!

If I were to own an Apple Watch, I would have a sub-conscious expectation that the watch battery will last forever. I am of the generation that owned Baby-G and G-shock watches growing up in the 90s. It almost seems unreasonable to have to charge my watch.

I believe that users never developed the same expectation (never having to charge) from their smartphones. Therefore, any product teams that launch products tied to a smartwatch have to be conscious and wary of how battery technology will affect user perception.

If users believe that they have to carry a back-up of their credit/debit cards despite having Apple Pay, they aren’t very likely to make a complete switch, are they?

Smartwatches have a long way to go to be completely useful and take over the smartphone market as the next personal computer.

I’d love to hear your thoughts on this as well. 🙂

App Metrics

I’m the Product Manager of a new app that allows students to make life decisions. I won’t expand further than that as we are still starting out. I wanted to touch upon the metrics that we are currently using to measure our success. Hope to learn more from the wordpress community.

  • Session Interval: Time elapsed since the last session. If it’s been a few days, what are the ways in which we can encourage them to come back?
  • Time in app: Facebook famously has a time in app of 10 minutes on average. Within a period of 24 hours, measuring how frequently the user stays in the app definitely is a consideration for us.
  • Screen Flow: I have identified specific places in the app where I want our users to increase their time spent. These are the flagship features of our app.

The above metrics is essentially derived from Dave McClure’s Startup Metrics for Pirates. Here’s the powerpoint deck describing it.

Hope to hear more about the metrics you use!

Quora: Product Review

Quora is a website for asking and answering questions based on subject matter expertise. This sounds fairly commonplace – several websites of this nature exist. For those of you who have used it however, you know that it’s a powerful social media platform because it could bring path-breaking innovation in the existing online publishing industry. I would consider it to be a major competitor of Wikipedia, Reddit, and the omnipresent Yahoo Answers. Here’s a link to the portal so you can check out the interface for yourself.

Quora – Main Website

Here are a few features/advantages that I consider to be disruptive.

Question Feed

The question feed is probably my favorite thing about the platform. Imagine a page which is tailored to show you the most critical questions that you have had about topics that you are interested in. Want to get career advice from the best mentors in your industry? Want to figure out why Elon Musk succeeded where others failed? I envision Quora’s feed becoming a bleeding edge artificial intelligence platform that answers questions BEFORE you’ve had a chance to fully construct them in your head or Google them. It knows your personal and professional interests. It could potentially help you learn things more quickly than you could ever have learned yourself (because you are learning from the crowd-sourced real-world experience of the very best visionaries in the world).

Upvotes from Friends

The network effect is, without a doubt, effective. It has been effective for Facebook, where you can see which photos/posts your friends like and you ultimately get addicted to this viewing experience. It has been effective for Instagram, where products can go viral overnight if the right celebrity posts photos about them. And I believe it could be more effective for Quora, where you can see the questions that your friends like. I particularly like this feature because I believe that my generation is highly competitive. We compete to be the most fit, the most knowledgeable, or the highest earners within our circles. But we cannot get there by ourselves, and we know this. So we look towards not only visionaries but also friends to determine how to navigate life. What are our friends Googling in order to succeed? What kinds of things are they really after? What makes them tick? I envision the upvotes/push notifications becoming a streamlined version of our best selves. If an employer or acquaintance ever wanted to understand who you are as a person and what you are truly after, all they would have to do is look at your viewing/upvote history on Quora. A big data way of summarizing a person and understanding their true personal and professional motivations.

Conclusion: I strongly believe that Quora is utilizing just a fraction of its true power as a social media platform. What makes it addictive is that it is not shallow. Now, it is not terribly scholarly and serious. In fact, it is quite fun but in a way that challenges your beliefs, your mindset, and your capacity to learn. And that’s the true unique value proposition and future of Quora. Who wouldn’t want to support a social media platform that enhances you and expands your outlook with each incremental minute you spend on it?

Just a thought

My $1 million idea:

I’ve decided to start an idea factory. It will consist of start-up ideas, or methodologies that I am too busy to work on/or will possibly never work on as they are far removed from my own experience. I am hoping someone in cyberspace will pick them up and implement them. No royalties needed. 😉 Just give me some props/credit when you make it big (although this may be too much to ask for in today’s world).

I build products for the people around me, for my friends, my family, and for myself. These are all distinct cohort/customer segments, mind you.

I have friends in many different professions, and with a wide variety of interests. My family is based globally and comprises of several age groups. And as you can probably tell by now, I am pretty eclectic myself. I think that I can do a fair job of discovering the world and people around me to build something that caters perfectly to their needs.

Having said that, I have the ability to empathize with people who are far, far removed from my world. And occasionally, I do have ideas on how to help them solve problems too. So here goes.

IDEA #1: Applying the concepts of The Lean Start-up to Bollywood!

The major issue that Bollywood producers have is not being able to tell what audiences want. There are many reasons for this, the most obvious and formidable one being the sheer variety of sub-cultures and mindsets that exist in one country of a billion people. How does one possibly test a minimum viable product with a randomized sample in a country of 1 billion people? Especially when the country has 150 different languages and sub-cultures. Add to that the complexity of testing with a variety of age groups and you can compute the combinations required to create a perfectly random sample from this mix as well as the size of the sample.

I would imagine the problem could be successfully solved in this manner.

  1. Test a story/idea with an audience at a local level via youtube. Get a few actors to do a 5 minute skit of the story idea. Really short and sweet. Do not attach your brand name to it, and post the video under the name of a relatively unknown youtube user. Attach relevant tags that you think would appeal to your early adopter segment.
  2. Measure. Look at analytics. What age groups seem to like the idea? What kinds of suggestions are they posting? What do they dislike about the story? Get a conversation going. Now, youtube commenters are not known for their eloquence or literary prowess but you will easily be able to tell which plot points they liked/disliked by engaging them.
  3. Learn. Benchmark your performance and figure out if your prototype test was successful. Rinse and repeat. (Choose a different platform this time, maybe a group of writers and a focus group)

Applying the concepts of The Lean Startup to Picturesque

Long story short, I realized that my progress on Picturesque was slower than I would have liked. I wanted to put the app in front of customers, but was not getting enough traction.

I decided to join forces with a team based at the University of Toronto, whose name I will not reveal as it is a fledgling company.

My goal is to suggest my product idea and test it with early adopters that they already have access to. I already know that this will prove to be a significant value add to their company. It is a leap-of-faith hypothesis as Eric Ries would say. Now, I have to convince the team of the same.